But to get there, those all-time greats will have to overcome two men who love playing in Australia. Speaking of Australia, their world No.1 faces last year’s finalist, who eliminated Ash Barty from her home Slam a year ago in this same round. And today’s other singles match features two Major quarter-final debutantes playing the biggest match of their careers.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Petra Kvitova (7)
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Kvitova not only defeated Barty last year in Melbourne: she also beat her two weeks prior to that in Sydney, in a dramatic, high-quality championship match decided by a final set tiebreak. Petra actually claimed all of their first four meetings. However, Barty has since taken their last three, all within the past year, and all played on hard courts. They clash of styles usually make for dynamic, competitive clashes. Both women are coming off tough three-setters two days ago: Barty against Alison Riske, and Kvitova against Maria Sakkari. In last year’s quarterfinal here, Barty seemed a bit overwhelmed by the occasion, as it was her first time advancing this far at a Major. But a year and a Slam title later, Ash will be much more prepared for this moment. She’ll also benefit from the slower-playing courts this year in Melbourne. I expect a much tighter contest today, but I still give the slight edge to Kvitova. She’s looked extra motivated and focused during this fortnight, and seems to play her best tennis during the first few months each season. And there’s just a ton of pressure on Ash in front of her home country, which is a lot to overcome.
Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Milos Raonic (32)
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Djokovic has simply dominated Raonic since they first met seven years. He’s 9-0 against the Canadian, and has won 21 of 23 sets played. So does Milos have a chance today? He just might. Raonic can find some positives in their last meeting at the 2018 Cincinnati Masters, where Milos had Novak extremely frustrated for a set-and-a-half on a fast-playing hard court. And Raonic has played exceptionally through four rounds here. He has been serving as well as ever, and is yet to drop a set. But even more impressive is that only one of those sets required a tiebreak, which shows how successful he’s been in breaking his opponents. When he’s playing this well, Milos is much more than just a big serve. While Djokovic has also advanced comfortably to this stage, he hasn’t looked quite his best. There must be a bit of physical and mental fatigue following the ATP Cup just two weeks ago. All things considered, Djokovic remains the favorite, but I expect Raonic to make this extremely competitive. He has a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset despite their lopsided head-to-head.
Roger Federer (3) vs. Tennys Sandgren
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Tennys is into his second Australian Open quarterfinal in the last three years. That’s impressive, but is eclipsed by Federer’s absurd 57 career Slam quarterfinals. It’s rare to get a first-time meeting in a Slam quarterfinal, but that’s what we have here with the living legend against the 28-year-old American who is a career 6-10 at Majors outside of his two quarterfinal runs. Sandgren played well to advance this far, defeating two top 12 players. Federer was lucky to survive his five-setter against John Millman two rounds ago, but recovered enough to dispatch of Marton Fucsovics on Sunday in four. Tennys is not used to playing this deep into Majors, and doesn’t have much in his game that should bother Federer. Roger is 14-0 in Australian Open quarterfinals, and he’s a heavy favorite to make it 15 straight.
Sofia Kenin (14) vs. Ons Jabeur
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The 21-year-old American leads their head-to-head 2-0, with both matches taking place last season. Kenin is the far more accomplished player, as she’s set to debut at a career-high ranking of No.12 on Monday, thanks to this run as well as three titles last season. Jabeur has long been touted a talented player, but this has finally been the breakout event for the 25-year-old, who has never won a WTA title and will debut inside the top 50 on Monday. Jabeur’s aggressive style has already earned her wins during this fortnight over Johanna Konta, Caroline Garcia, Caroline Wozniacki, and Qiang Wang. She’s capable of pulling off another upset set, though I’m betting on Kenin’s experience, as well as her grit, to pull her through to her first Major semifinal.
Order of play (time in GMT)
Rod Laver Arena
From 00:00am
S. Kenin (14) v O. Jabeur
Not before 1:30am
A. Barty (1) v P. Kvitova (7)
Not before 3:30am
T. Sandgren v R. Federer (3)
From 8:00am
M. Raonic (32) v N. Djokovic (2)
M. Purcell/L. Saville v S. Gonzalez/K. Skupski
